Despite a Rising China, Japan Still Matters
China Has the Ability to Reinvigorate the US-Japan Alliance
Aug 7, 2009
China is rising. As the world’s third largest economy and largest holder of US debt, China’s importance to US economic interests in undeniable. Furthermore, as the primary trading partner for most of Asia, China carries even more clout in terms of the Asian region as a whole. While the age of US hegemony might have come to a close with the recent financial crisis, America does not need to bow unyieldingly to a new rising power, largely due to its continued global importance and its partnership with another prominent Asian leader - Japan.
Friend or Foe – China’s Future and the United States
Many foreign policy and economic pundits have focused their attention on China and have been strategizing on how the US should best approach the new power. Some see China as a potential rival requiring careful maneuvering to avoid potential military conflict and maintain US primacy in international affairs. Such an approach requires greater Asian engagement on the part of the US in the form of military and economic assistance, providing developing states with an alternate source of funding and another destination for their raw or manufactured materials.
Other experts view China in a more positive light. Firstly, these experts argue that while China is growing rapidly, its economy and military capacity are still only a fraction of that in the US. Secondly, they point out that because China holds such a great amount of US dollar-denominated investments, they have a vested interest in seeing a stable, if not strong, US dollar and will therefore not work to undermine it. These experts usually suggest that the US encourage China to increase its transparency, improve on human rights, and integrate itself in world institutions and markets so as to mitigate any incentive for unfair or bad behavior.
Regardless of which camp experts fall into, the primary consensus is that the US must now engage China in a new and more aggressive way. Some suggest that this may even come at the expense of the US-Japan alliance, which has served as the lynchpin for US Asian foreign policy since the end of World War II.
The Ties That Bind
Within Japan there is similar contemplation regarding engagement with China. While Japan has its own concerns regarding Asian leadership, economics, and regional integration, it is also largely concerned with the implications China has in terms of influencing US policy. For over 50 years, Japan has enjoyed the closest relationship with the United States of any other Asian nation. Japan is one of the primary trading partners for the US and is extremely important to US security policy and strategic operations in the Pacific.
China’s future actions can either erode this important relationship or fortify the bonds that tie the US and Japan together. For example, should the rising power turn bellicose, Japan and the US are likely to work in conjunction with each other to build up US troops and capabilities in Japan, thereby strengthening Japan’s security umbrella while simultaneously amplifying the reach of US power and maneuvering abilities in Asia.
In terms of economic might, China is an increasingly important trading partner for Asian states, including Japan, and is also a large supplier of goods to the United States. Japan, however, is still the largest economy in Asia and the second largest economy in the world. It has achieved this with a population of 128 million, only a fraction of the Chinese population, and virtually no natural resources. Because Japan is large producer of advanced technology goods like the United States, it has an interest in working closely with the US to tighten intellectual property rights (IPR) violations in China. Furthermore, Japan has one of the strictest, most efficient systems for quality assurance of imports—something that the US is significantly weaker on—and the US has already turned to its ally for assistance in developing stronger measures for insuring the safety of Chinese imports. In this way, China is bringing the US and Japan closer together.
The Other Shoe Waiting to Drop
There are, of course, potential weak points in the US-Japan alliance. Should China pursue a strategy of cooperation and partnership with the US, Japan may suddenly find itself competing for US attention. Furthermore, such a shift could require massive internal restructuring for Japan, such as a constitutional amendment to develop its own military capability and security measures, if the US begins to divert attention and resources from Japan. An additional advantage for China is its importance in Asia as a trading partner. Few states are willing to disengage China due to its market size and growth, and a closer US-Sino relationship could potentially result in stronger US-Asia relations overall.
However, such changes in US Asian foreign policy hinge on several important conditions, the primary one being an assumption that China will increase its transparency, liberalize it human rights, and opt for strategy of US-partnership rather than competition. Until China achieves these points, the US-Japan relationship is safe and, in the interim, is likely to grow stronger as China continues its path toward an uncertain future.
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